The biggest threat to the U.S. Ryder Cup team

Golf Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While I was busy searching for the best line to describe Miguel Angel Jimenez, someone I don't know beat me to it.

In the Internet age, it isn't hard to believe how it happened.

Sports Illustrated writer Alan Shipnuck posted to his Twitter feed Sunday a text message he received from a friend: "Is Miguel Angel Jimenez actually the most interesting man in the world?"

The answer, of course, is no, although watching the cigar-chewing Jimenez describe his post-round dinners in Switzerland in that distinctive Spanish diction was as interesting as anything in those Dos Equis commercials.

Ponytailed and built like an upside-down pear, Jimenez represents the biggest threat to this year's U.S. Ryder Cup team, which is set to be finalized with Corey Pavin's captain's picks on Tuesday morning.

He is the Overlooked Opponent.

For all the talk about how strong the European side is -- Paul Casey is a top-10 player and not on the team? -- almost none of the discussion has included Jimenez.

In fact, when I asked the only Ryder Cup expert I know if Jimenez should have been considered for a captain's selection had he not made the team on points, his answer was a swift "no."

But why not?

Jimenez became the first player on either the PGA or European Tour to win three times this season when he captured the European Masters on Sunday.

Seven days before, Jimenez tied for third place at the Johnnie Walker Championship to make the European team on points, securing one of the last automatic spots.

Despite having another winning season -- he has also picked up titles at the Dubai Desert Classic and French Open -- Jimenez was basically an afterthought when the European Ryder Cup team was finalized by captain Colin Montgomerie.

All the big names came up: Ryder Cup stalwarts Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Padraig Harrington. Rising star Rory McIlroy. Italian brothers Francesco and Edoardo Molinari.

There wasn't much discussion of the 46-year-old Jimenez. Was it because he only built a 2-7-3 record in three previous Ryder Cup appearances? More ammo for the Overlooked Opponent argument.

We don't know how anyone on the European team will play at Celtic Manor in three weeks, but we do know a few other things.

Westwood, one of the winningest players in Ryder Cup history, is nursing a calf injury and hasn't played four competitive rounds since his runner-up finish at the British Open.

Harrington is having a middling season by his standards and hasn't won since the 2008 PGA Championship. Poulter hasn't posted a top-10 finish since the Masters.

Meanwhile, Jimenez continues to have one of the more noteworthy careers of the last decade. The man they call "The Mechanic" has captured 11 of his 18 career wins since he turned 40.

Another example of his ageless talent? Jimenez flirted with shooting the first 59 in European Tour history last Friday, a bid that was derailed by three straight pars at the end of his round.

Jimenez shot a 61 instead, good for a three-shot lead heading into the weekend. Then he played the final two rounds in the same group with Edoardo Molinari, the 29-year-old surging half of the talented Italian brothers.

In what was basically a match-play scenario between the two players, Jimenez matched Molinari's score in both rounds, protecting his three-shot lead until the end.

Of course, Jimenez was in his element. During the 22 years he has showed up to play at the Swiss mountain resort, Jimenez has stayed in the same hotels, eaten at the same restaurants, enjoyed the support of the same galleries.

"They love me here," he said, drawing on one of his gigantic cigars.

They may love him at Celtic Manor, too, and that should give the American team pause.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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